Pierre WackScenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead, HBR 1985
Structured exploration of divergent plausible futures to stress-test strategy and re-perceive risk — Shell's rehearsal for the 1973 oil shock.
Nassim Nicholas TalebThe Black Swan, 2007
Since rare, extreme events dominate outcomes, robustness to a range of futures beats optimisation for a single forecast.
The EclipseFrontiers® LensPlan for futures, not a future.