Spyros MakridakisForecasting: Methods and Applications
The estimation of future outcomes based on systematic analysis of past data — with humility, since the M-competitions show simple methods often beat complex ones.
Philip TetlockSuperforecasting, 2015
Accurate forecasting is a skill: breaking problems apart, updating in small increments, and keeping score — foxes beat hedgehogs.
The EclipseFrontiers® LensForecast in pencil. Update in ink.