Annie DukeThinking in Bets, 2018
Decisions are bets on uncertain futures — separate decision quality from outcome quality and think in probabilities, not certainties.
Daniel Kahneman & Amos TverskyProspect theory & heuristics research
Human intuition systematically misjudges probability — anchoring, availability and overconfidence — so calibrated process must correct instinct.
The EclipseFrontiers® LensCertainty is a costume that uncertainty wears to meetings.