Daniel Kahneman & Amos TverskyIntuitive prediction work, 1979
Correct the inside view's optimism by taking the outside view: forecast from the distribution of outcomes in a class of similar past cases.
Bent FlyvbjergMegaproject research, 2006 onward
Applied at scale: base project forecasts on actual outcomes of comparable projects — the cure for systematic cost underestimation and benefit inflation.
The EclipseFrontiers® LensYour project isn't special. Forecast like it, deliver like it is.